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Recent Posts
- Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8970
- Weekly Review and Outlook: Risk Recovery Short Lived, Dollar to Extend Rally in a Busy Week ahead
- Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 104.50
- EUR/USD Short Term Bear Flag?
- Liquidity Crisis? A Currency Perspective
- GBP/USD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis
- Euro Area: Debt Crisis Set to Continue for Years
- GBP/USD Medium Term Downchannel and the QE Debate
- Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8710
- Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8440
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Risk Archive
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IMM Positioning – Positioning Risk On EUR/USD Eases
Posted on July 12, 2010 | No CommentsDuring the week covered by the latest IMM positioning data, USD has weakened more than 2% in effective terms, with EUR/USD breaking well above 1.26 in summer-thin trading and with USD/JPY dropping below 87. The broad-based USD weakening has coincided with speculative investors trimming their... -
EURGBP: Risk Continues To Point Higher
Posted on July 8, 2010 | No CommentsContinued strength saw the cross rallying strongly on Tuesday and increasing risk of a move higher towards its Jun 20’10 high at 0.8384. This development is coming on the back of a corrective recovery started from the 0.8066 level, its 2010 low. Above the 0.8384... -
Mid-Day Report: Swiss Franc Lower on Weak CPI, Dollar Soft on Risk Appetite
Posted on July 7, 2010 | No CommentsSwiss Franc is mildly lower today after consumer inflation report. CPI in June dropped -0.4% mom, rose 0.5% yoy versus consensus of -0.1% mom, 1.0% yoy. Recent strength in Swiss Franc was driven by SNB’s message of disappearing deflation risk, which led to exit of... -
AUDUSD: Immediate Risk Points To The Downside
Posted on July 5, 2010 | No CommentsWith AUDUSD turning back below the 0.8550/00 levels and creating a technical damage to its nearer term recovery off the 0.8065 level, its 2010 low, risk continues to point to the downside with eyes on its July 01’10 low at 0.8314. A respite may be... -
Mid-Day Report: Euro Extends Rally as NFP Risk Cleared
Posted on July 2, 2010 | No CommentsEuro extends rally against dollar in early US session as non-farm payroll risk is cleared. Job report in US showed -125k contraction in June, worse than but not far from expectation of -110k. Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 9.7% to 9.5% comparing to expectation of... -
$/Swiss, Still Short but Risk Rising
Posted on July 1, 2010 | No CommentsIn $/swiss in the Jun 22nd email, affirmed the short position (sold on Jun 15th at 1.1330), and adding that there were no signs of a bottom. The market continued lower from there, plunging below the base of the multi-month bullish channel (see daily chart... -
Risk Aversion Dominated Markets, S&P 500 Made New 2010 Low, Dow Closed Below 9900
Posted on June 30, 2010 | No CommentsMarket sentiments were hit by two pieces of data from Conference Board today. Selloff in equities was triggered in Asia by downside revision in China leading indicator that sent Shanghai Composite -4.27% lower. European stocks followed with FTSE down -3.1%, DAX down -3.33% and CAC... -
EURUSD – Risk Still See Towards 1.2466 Level
Posted on June 28, 2010 | No CommentsAlthough price hesitation saw the pair turning off its corrective recovery high at 1.2466 to close the week marginally lower, that level is still being targeted as long as EUR holds above the 1.2208 level, its Jun 23′10 low. Additionally, despite this price action, the... -
EURUSD – Risk Of A Return To 1.2466 Building Up
Posted on June 25, 2010 | No CommentsThough gaining marginally to close higher on Thursday, EUR has potential of returning to the 1.2466 level, its Jun 21′10 high. This is coming on the back of a halt of its weakness from the mentioned level on Wednesday. A firm break above the 1.2466...