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Recent Posts
- Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8970
- Weekly Review and Outlook: Risk Recovery Short Lived, Dollar to Extend Rally in a Busy Week ahead
- Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 104.50
- EUR/USD Short Term Bear Flag?
- Liquidity Crisis? A Currency Perspective
- GBP/USD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis
- Euro Area: Debt Crisis Set to Continue for Years
- GBP/USD Medium Term Downchannel and the QE Debate
- Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8710
- Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8440
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Global Archive
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FX Forecast Update: Global Mid-cycle Slowdown to Support USD, JPY and CHF
Posted on August 18, 2010 | No CommentsWe look for EUR/USD to adjust lower in the short term as the dollar is too negatively priced. Europe is not such a rosy story as implied by current pricing. On the longer horizon, we see more dollar-negative factors and forecast EUR/USD to trade higher... -
Financial Markets Monthly – August 2010: Global Economy Set to Grow at More Sustainable Pace
Posted on August 14, 2010 | No CommentsThe global economy grew at a rapid rate in early 2010 with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that GDP output increased at a faster than 5% annualized pace in the first quarter of the year. Trade volumes and global industrial production surged, and the... -
Global Markets: Managing Low Growth and Return Expectations in a More Volatile World
Posted on July 15, 2010 | No CommentsThe global economy is at a sensitive point in the cycle as it transitions from policy driven expansion to sustained private demand. Global purchasing manager’s surveys peaked in May, and the growth tailwind from the inventory rebuild is blowing with less force. We are at... -
Financial Markets Monthly – July 2010: Risks to the Global Economy Leave Investors Cautious
Posted on July 11, 2010 | No CommentsIn the past month, financial markets have been hit with a bad case of the jitters on worries that the global economy will not be able to withstand the implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Europe and slowing growth in some emerging economies. Central bankers... -
Daily Report: IMF Raised Global Forecast, ECB and BoE in Focus
Posted on July 8, 2010 | No CommentsJapanese yen is sharply lower today as Asian equities soar following 2.82% rally in DOW overnight. IMF raised forecast of global growth from April’s projection of 4.2% to 4.6%. Though, growth for 2011 was unchanged at 4.3%. The IMF report stated that "The new forecasts... -
Global Markets: Trends in Low Places
Posted on June 16, 2010 | No CommentsAfter the major market shakeout through May over European debt fears, we have begun to see a slightly better attitude when it comes to risk. Granted, financial markets have priced in a decent chance of a double-dip recession for advanced economies later this year. The... -
Global Scenarios: Recovery on Track, But New Risks Surfacing
Posted on June 2, 2010 | No CommentsThe global recovery has remained on track this year and been even stronger than expected in most regions. In the US the consumer revival has been very robust and investment spending has gathered pace, as recently witnessed by strong durable goods orders. As we highlighted... -
BOC Hiked Rate to 0.5%, Remained Cautious to Global Economic Outlook
Posted on June 1, 2010 | No CommentsAs expected, the Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by +25 bps to 0.5%, being the first G7 central banks to tighten monetary policy after recession. While policymakers acknowledged robust domestic economic growth in recent months, they remained cautious about global market developments, especially... -
Global Markets: Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Risk
Posted on May 23, 2010 | No CommentsTimed from the trough in equity markets, we are now one year out from the start of the recovery. The context of the story has gyrated from bailouts of banks to governments, but the overall story remains the ebb and flow of risk appetite. There...