Archive For The “Long Term Forex Forecasts” Category
The recovery has proven solid, with fixed investment and personal spending growing at pre-crisis rates. Job growth continues to lag, but an imminent upturn is on the cards. Household spending should grow at a solid pace in 2011. The tax deal approved by Congress in December more than offsets the drag from [...]
[WizardRSS: unable to retrieve full-text content] We still hold the view that relative rates will be the single most important factor for the FX market in 2011. We forecast that the ECB will start to tighten monetary policy in Q4, not far from current market pricing, whereas we believe that the market is far too [...]
Global Markets – Just Desserts: Emerging Market Economies Bring a Food Fight to the World
By admin | February 17, 2011
HIGHLIGHTS Absorbing higher commodity prices proving to be more difficult for emerging markets, where policymakers must balance both the economic and social impact Emerging market policymakers are concerned traditional tools for dealing with inflation could come at a cost to economic growth Overhang of disinflationary slack in developed market economies [...]
This is the third paper in our research series on inflation. We now focus on the impact of global commodity price changes on inflation in the euro area. In addition to our main scenario we examine three scenarios: “The good”, “the bad” and “the ugly”. Inflation will remain above 2% throughout 2011 [...]
With the global recovery strengthening and commodity prices rising sharply, inflation has returned as a market theme. In a series of research papers in the coming weeks, we will look at the global inflation theme from different angles and look more closely at the inflation outlook for different regions. We start [...]
In this paper we examine different scenarios for the outcome of the European debt crisis. We believe the sovereign debt crisis will eventually be contained but that we should expect continued high market volatility for some time. A lot of political capital has been invested in the euro project and ambitious mechanisms [...]
[WizardRSS: unable to retrieve full-text content] Last week, Jean-Claude Trichet made it clear that the ECB is closely monitoring inflation and in doing so he reignited ECB rate hike expectations. The hawkish ECB rhetoric stands in stark contrast to that of the Fed’s Bernanke, who is still focusing on the risk of deflation. Our interest [...]
Financial Market Review – last month Euro area economic activity continues to be led by robust expansion in Germany. Moreover, the mix of German growth has improved with domestic demand now showing signs of life. But conditions in euro area government bond markets remain difficult. Yield spreads over German bunds have risen [...]
Executive Summary In the first of two special reports on the European sovereign debt crisis, we analyze the debt sustainability issues that Portugal, Spain and Italy face. For starters, each government confronts a formidable refinancing calendar in 2011 with an aggregate amount exceeding €500 billion scheduled to be rolled during the year. [...]