Long Term Forex Forecasts Archive

  • U.S. Recovery is Tracking Traditional Experience after Financial Crisis Induced Recessions

    U.S. Recovery is Tracking Traditional Experience after Financial Crisis Induced Recessions

    HIGHLIGHTS The US recession and recovery cycle is closely following the average experience of countries that experienced a synchronized financial crisis in the past Although the sample size among like-experiences is small, the recent behaviour of the economy argues against a double-dip and/or deflation. It...

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  • Monthly Economic Outlook – August 2010

    Monthly Economic Outlook – August 2010

    Our outlook has no double-dip, no V-shaped recovery, no hyper-inflation in response to the Fed’s enlarged balance sheet, and no deflation in response to the Fed’s failure to increase the balance sheet even more. Instead, our outlook is for moderate, subpar growth during the second...

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  • FX Monthly – August 2010

    FX Monthly – August 2010

    The USD sell-off initiated in June kicked into overdrive shortly after our July report as the market quickly sold the greenback off to its lowest level since January. The main driver behind the weak USD argument was the strong and steady fall in US interest...

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  • FX Forecast Update: Global Mid-cycle Slowdown to Support USD, JPY and CHF

    FX Forecast Update: Global Mid-cycle Slowdown to Support USD, JPY and CHF

    We look for EUR/USD to adjust lower in the short term as the dollar is too negatively priced. Europe is not such a rosy story as implied by current pricing. On the longer horizon, we see more dollar-negative factors and forecast EUR/USD to trade higher...

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  • Financial Markets Monthly – August 2010: Global Economy Set to Grow at More Sustainable Pace

    Financial Markets Monthly – August 2010: Global Economy Set to Grow at More Sustainable Pace

    The global economy grew at a rapid rate in early 2010 with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that GDP output increased at a faster than 5% annualized pace in the first quarter of the year. Trade volumes and global industrial production surged, and the...

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  • International Financial Outlook August 2010

    International Financial Outlook August 2010

    Signs of weaker economic growth in the US has led to a fall in the dollar and a rise in its counterparts. Notable amongst the latter has been the seeming turnaround in the fortunes of the euro. It has moved from being under 1.20 versus...

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  • Global Markets: Managing Low Growth and Return Expectations in a More Volatile World

    Global Markets: Managing Low Growth and Return Expectations in a More Volatile World

    The global economy is at a sensitive point in the cycle as it transitions from policy driven expansion to sustained private demand. Global purchasing manager’s surveys peaked in May, and the growth tailwind from the inventory rebuild is blowing with less force. We are at...

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  • International Financial Outlook July 2010

    International Financial Outlook July 2010

    Overarching themes driving global financial markets have not changed significantly in the last month but some of the intensity has faded. Renewed euro buying relative to the dollar does not mean that concerns about the risk of sovereign debt default in Europe has gone away...

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  • Financial Markets Monthly – July 2010: Risks to the Global Economy Leave Investors Cautious

    Financial Markets Monthly – July 2010: Risks to the Global Economy Leave Investors Cautious

    In the past month, financial markets have been hit with a bad case of the jitters on worries that the global economy will not be able to withstand the implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Europe and slowing growth in some emerging economies. Central bankers...

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