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Recent Posts
- Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 84.50
- Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Hold long entered at 1.0510
- ECB To Extend Full Allotment Of Refinancing Operations Towards Year-End
- EURUSD: Struggling To Recover Higher
- U.S. Recovery is Tracking Traditional Experience after Financial Crisis Induced Recessions
- Monthly Economic Outlook – August 2010
- Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5470
- GBP/USD – Approaching Sell Zone
- FX Monthly – August 2010
- Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0465
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Long Term Forex Forecasts Archive
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U.S. Recovery is Tracking Traditional Experience after Financial Crisis Induced Recessions
Posted on August 29, 2010 | No CommentsHIGHLIGHTS The US recession and recovery cycle is closely following the average experience of countries that experienced a synchronized financial crisis in the past Although the sample size among like-experiences is small, the recent behaviour of the economy argues against a double-dip and/or deflation. It... -
Monthly Economic Outlook – August 2010
Posted on August 26, 2010 | No CommentsOur outlook has no double-dip, no V-shaped recovery, no hyper-inflation in response to the Fed’s enlarged balance sheet, and no deflation in response to the Fed’s failure to increase the balance sheet even more. Instead, our outlook is for moderate, subpar growth during the second... -
FX Monthly – August 2010
Posted on August 22, 2010 | No CommentsThe USD sell-off initiated in June kicked into overdrive shortly after our July report as the market quickly sold the greenback off to its lowest level since January. The main driver behind the weak USD argument was the strong and steady fall in US interest... -
FX Forecast Update: Global Mid-cycle Slowdown to Support USD, JPY and CHF
Posted on August 18, 2010 | No CommentsWe look for EUR/USD to adjust lower in the short term as the dollar is too negatively priced. Europe is not such a rosy story as implied by current pricing. On the longer horizon, we see more dollar-negative factors and forecast EUR/USD to trade higher... -
Financial Markets Monthly – August 2010: Global Economy Set to Grow at More Sustainable Pace
Posted on August 14, 2010 | No CommentsThe global economy grew at a rapid rate in early 2010 with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that GDP output increased at a faster than 5% annualized pace in the first quarter of the year. Trade volumes and global industrial production surged, and the... -
International Financial Outlook August 2010
Posted on August 10, 2010 | No CommentsSigns of weaker economic growth in the US has led to a fall in the dollar and a rise in its counterparts. Notable amongst the latter has been the seeming turnaround in the fortunes of the euro. It has moved from being under 1.20 versus... -
Global Markets: Managing Low Growth and Return Expectations in a More Volatile World
Posted on July 15, 2010 | No CommentsThe global economy is at a sensitive point in the cycle as it transitions from policy driven expansion to sustained private demand. Global purchasing manager’s surveys peaked in May, and the growth tailwind from the inventory rebuild is blowing with less force. We are at... -
International Financial Outlook July 2010
Posted on July 13, 2010 | No CommentsOverarching themes driving global financial markets have not changed significantly in the last month but some of the intensity has faded. Renewed euro buying relative to the dollar does not mean that concerns about the risk of sovereign debt default in Europe has gone away... -
Financial Markets Monthly – July 2010: Risks to the Global Economy Leave Investors Cautious
Posted on July 11, 2010 | No CommentsIn the past month, financial markets have been hit with a bad case of the jitters on worries that the global economy will not be able to withstand the implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Europe and slowing growth in some emerging economies. Central bankers...