Long Term Forex Forecasts Archive

In 2008, the global financial system faced a potential meltdown when funding seized up for investment banks, ultimately leading to the failure of Lehmann Brothers. Three years on, we have got plenty of problems, but – as we shall argue – investors may want to...

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At the beginning of the year, we presented three debt crisis scenarios. In this document we look at the recent economic and political developments and present an update of our scenarios. Our main scenario is that the debt crisis will continue for a couple...

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Over the past month, equity markets have been declining, on the fear of recession and heightened uncertainty relating to European and US debt problems. In this document, we examine the pass-through from equity prices on the real economy. We conclude that a 10% fall...

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Key points Dollar negative factors to dominate over the next 12 months and push EUR/USD towards 1.50 Still some value in the Scandi currencies as the market underestimate the risk of further monetary tightening USD/JPY to stay close to intervention levels as no support from...

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The recent years’ fast rise in US gross debt combined with a deterioration of economic outlook has resulted in concern about future fiscal sustainability. In response Standard&Poor’s (S&P) have downgraded US sovereign debt to AA+ and Moody’s and Fitch have put US on negative outlook. ...

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Executive Summary In the first of two special reports on the European sovereign debt crisis, we analyze the second bailout package for Greece that leaders of the European Union (EU) recently announced. Our calculations show that the package should stabilize the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio...

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U.S. Monetary Policy In the last Saxo Bank Quarterly Outlook, for Q2 2011, we came to the conclusion that U.S. Monetary Policy rates would remain on hold at least until the end of 2011 and very possibly until 2013. At the time, this was by...

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With another day of dallying and dallying outside, perhaps, of GBP crosses, we have a look at the really big picture for each of the G-10 currencies versus a basket of their peers. With no further ado, the charts below are of each G-10 currency versus...

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About the Author Lloyds TSB Bank Disclaimer: Any documentation, reports, correspondence or other material or information in whatever form be it electronic, textual or otherwise is based on sources believed to be reliable, however neither the Bank nor its directors, officers...

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